User blog comment:Deshiba/Are you Critting me !?/@comment-7878249-20130518150033/@comment-7996065-20130518173502

the problem being that you can't take "randomness" into account. The closest you can get to take it into account is by thinking "I will never crit and my opponent always will", otherwise its just a gamble. Imagine you are playing versus a hero with a single target nuke and that single target nuke has a 25% chance of critting. If he crits you when you engage, you are dead, and if he doesnt, you will kill him. The resulting three scenarios are then possible.

1. You kill your enemy, in which case you were rewarded for your bravery and ability use.

2. Your enemy kills you, in which case you were punished for taking a risk and your enemy was rewarded for relying on a random number.

3. You walk away and neither die. The randomness of the situation might have scared you off.

Now, any gambler knows that a 75% chance to win is a safe deal, but why should the enemy be rewarded for relying on a random number when that is clearly not the optimal solution?