Talk:Elo rating system/@comment-62.207.64.206-20120126094619/@comment-188.178.187.14-20120126103736

If you want to understand the problem - read up on "background risk". There you will see that external risk factors have an effect on the decision maker. Recent researc also indicate that external risk factors directly impact your performance (the more risk, the worse you perform). This is also observed in economy - read up on Bowman paradox.

It is partly this effect that ELO fails to capture, and must be adjusted for.