User blog comment:Wubmeister/Can we predict the cycle of FotM?/@comment-10256611-20140120160815

The "perfect imbalance" is not the only factor, if it was, we would ALWAYS predict FoTM cycle.

Riot keeps on balancing champions (reworks) and items (masteries and runes) and it also influences "top picks", because some reworked champions counter current "top picks" perfectly and benefit from FoTM items more. Sometimes a nerfed champion is pushed out of scene by other champion who now does his job better.

Sometimes, when picks that fill a niche role become dominant, people start to pick champions that synergize with them, just to make new dominators even better.

Next factor - new champions. We can't fully guess these. As with reworks, they can be perfect counters to FoTM and become FoTM.

Skins and visual upgrades are next factor. While it may sound dumb, they really influence "top picks", especially in lower queues. "Oh look this hopeless champion will get new skin in following patch. Damn this skin is amazing. Instabuy." And then "Wow who would suppose that this champion facerolls so easily"/"Wow he is really fun to play".

So the answer is: Yes, we can guess new FoTM, but it's really hard and we need to take many factors in account.