User blog comment:Madness Incarnate/The Mathematics and Psychology behind "Elo Hell"/@comment-109.89.157.25-20130111050651

The main thing you forgot to take into consideration in your calculations is that, when you win against teams which have a lower averaged Elo than yours, you will get a lower reward than if you beat a better team. The same system is applied in chess competitions, for example, as you can see in Ilkcs's link below.

Let's take your calculations again, in the 4/9 scenario. Winning 56 games for +12 Elo and losing 44 games for -16 Elo nets you a total of -32 Elo.

Welcome to Elo Hell.