Talk:Critical strike/@comment-26116046-20160313222650/@comment-15667791-20160607195324

Not accurate. A crit mark is a .93% chance to crit, but the base amount is much smaller, and hard to figure without some precise formula. It's actually easier to work backwards, as such:

Say you have a 50% pseudo chance to crit. That means that the first attack you make will crit 50% of the time, and if that fails, the second will crit 100% of the time. That leaves your first attack crit chance as:

(50 * 1)% = 50%

and then the second chance would be:

(50 * 2)% = 100%

So, half the time you get a crit first hit, and half the time you don't crit then crit.

First hit: 50% chance for crit over 1 hit

Second hit: (100 - 50)% * 100% chance for crit over 2 hits

This leaves you with a 66.6% average chance to crit over 1 hit (average, based on percentage weights), so a 66.6% crit chance.

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Similarly, with 25%, and this gets a little hairy...

First attack: (25% * 1)% = 25%

Second attack: (25% * 2)% = 50%

Third attack: (25% * 3)% = 75%

Fourth attack: (25% * 4)% = 100%

And the crit spread:

First hit: 25% chance for crit over 1 hit

Second hit: (100% - 25%) * 50% = 37.5% over 2 hits

Third hit: (100% - 25% - 37.5%) * 75% = 28.125% over 3 hits

Fourth hit: (100% - 25% - 37.5% - 28.125%) * 100% = 9.375% over 4 hits

Which makes:

25% + (37.5% / 2) + (28.125% / 3) + (9.375% / 4) = 55.468% crit chance.

This means that 66.66% is the lowest crit chance that allows fewer than 2 missed crits (only one miss allowed), and a 55.468% chance is the lowest crit chance that allows fewer than 4 (only 3 misses allowed). All of this is using the pseudo-crit chance that the game uses to produce its results, to the best of my knowledge.

Additionally, the pseudo-crit number can never approach the actual crit chance number. As an example, if you were to have a 1% crit base, then your first hit would be at a 1% chance, but the second hit would be 2% of 99%, the 3rd would be 3% of over 97%, and so on. All the values will be over 1% crit until (guessing) about the 25% of 25% point, at which time 3/4 of your actual crit has been defined as over 1%, and the number is still growing.

TL;DR; Please don't read. If you do, I hope you understand. But you probably won't. I probably won't even understand half of this tomorrow. It is, however, at least somewhat accurate.