User blog comment:Madness Incarnate/The Mathematics and Psychology behind "Elo Hell"/@comment-109.89.157.25-20130111050651/@comment-5791947-20130111065508

The main thing you forgot to take into consideration in your calculations is that, when you lose against teams which have a higher averaged Elo than yours, you will get a higher reward than if you beat a worse team. The same system is applied in chess competitions, for example, as you can see in Ilkcs's link below.

Let's take your calculations again, in the 4/9 scenario. Winning 44 games for +16 Elo and losing 56 games for -12 Elo nets you a total of +32 Elo.

Welcome to Elo Heaven.