User blog comment:Texas Snyper/Elo Hell and You: Part 2 - Skills That Pay the Bills/@comment-157.27.242.121-20110916114305/@comment-3360527-20110921021750

I'm not assuming anything. The 1600+ players started at 1200 with an X of 1600 and, by way of my graph, were able to influence the game to their benefit and climbed up to where they got to. They did not have a 50/50 chance to win because that would assume that their games would have an equally skilled opponent in every game while being under rated.

Luck is a non-factor because it has just as much a chance to help you as to hinder you, and after enough games it becomes relatively insignificant compared to your skill influence.